Why Oil could Lead to a World War
Oil is the lifeblood of many countries. Its consumption enables the infrastructure that keeps industry and transport possible. Its sale forms the financial backbone of other countries, including Russia and Iran. The alleged US/Saudi reduction of oil prices is forcing both countries to consider dramatic actions.
Looking back at history, most attribute the attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan in December, 1941, as a result of the island nation expecting the United States to join the war eventually, giving them reason to try to weaken them first. What few discuss is that relations were not horrific at the time. Dialogue had not completely failed. What pushed them over the edge was a dangerously low oil supply to drive their war efforts. Few realize that the US exported oil to Japan through most of the pre-attack war.
In July, that policy changed and the US stopped sending oil. Five months later, Japan had to make a move.
This sort of desperation is being felt by Russia and Iran as well as other oil exporters. The US may be the biggest oil producer but it’s not dependent on it. Saudi Arabia is dependent on it but has enough financial clout in reserves to be able to survive much longer with low oil prices than Russia or Iran. If oil prices do not go up, Vladimir Putin’s hand may be forced. He may have no alternative but to raise the prices through military action.
Iran could do the same through terrorist activities from their various proxies. It could be an excuse to strike at Saudi Arabia, an enemy that is third on the country’s most hated list behind the “little satan” of Israel and the “big satan” of the United States.
This brings up Israel, which could become a target of either Iran or Russia in their cash-deprived states.This would be a bold and shocking maneuver to drive up oil prices. Nobody would expect it, which is why it’s an option that nobody is discussing.
As Americans, we see the reduced oil prices as a blessing, but it is a very dangerous blessing that can quickly turn into a curse if it doesn’t shift upward and stabilize quickly.
Here’s a video by AMTV that breaks down some of the circumstances behind the situation: